Ask HN: How to prepare ones investments for a potential AI bubble burst?
We've had many discussions about whether AI is a bubble or not - but what do we as individuals actually do with those assumptions?
If one were to assume AI is a giant bubble that might burst any second - what would the best investment strategy be? How would one shift ones portfolio to ideally not only not get burned by it, but maybe even benefit?
The classic advice is that even in an obvious bubble, you cannot time the market. Long term, the easiest solution is also the best: just leave your money broadly in the market. The market may crash, but in a decade or so it'll be back here, and pulling your money out just costs you opportunities during the run-up.
The aphoristic version: "Time in the market beats timing the market." History has borne that out repeatedly.
Having said that... maybe this time it really is different. Even before the AI bubble, there was the "Everything Bubble", and it looks for all the world as if the AI bubble is just a way to prolong that. Too much cash has flowed into the market, and it may never reach this point again. It could take out the dollar itself.
In which case... well, logically, you could cash out, put things into a wide basket of foreign currencies, and hope that you're not losing too many opportunities. Wait for what you hope is a bottom, and console yourself that if it does crash the time-in-market philosophy will reassert itself so it doesn't matter if you guess right or not.
Or not. The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent, in which case the best advice is to just not invest specifically in AI stocks and content yourself with ordinary market earnings -- averaging through the crash.
This is all really classic advice; I don't have any special insights. And the classic advice has always been good... until it isn't.
I work at a hedge fund and we hoard premium dark chocolate as a hedge against AI collapse, inflation, stagflation, mass hysteria etc. Shelf stable, high demand, better store of value than 90% of the Nasdaq.
> If one were to assume AI is a giant bubble that might burst any second - what would the best investment strategy be?
IF this really is true you should bet on it blowing up and buy put options in that manner. Then your investment would make you rich.
<not financial advise>